• Menu
  • About
  • REVIEWS

KAYE SWAINKAYE SWAIN

Kaye Swain Roseville REALTOR - Specializing in Over 55 Communities in Roseville CA Area

9167680127
KayeSwainRE@gmail.com
  • Menu
  • HOME
  • Blog
  • Roseville CA
  • Retirement
  • real estate update
  • Brand New Homes
  • Homes For Sale
  • Home Value
  • Sell home
  • virtual home tour
  • Homes sold

6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time

Thank you for sharing....

6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | Simplifying The Market

Last March, many involved in the residential housing industry feared the market would be crushed under the pressure of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. Instead, real estate had one of its best years ever. Home sales and prices were both up substantially over the year before. 2020 was so strong that many now fear the market’s exuberance mirrors that of the last housing boom and, as a result, we’re now headed for another crash.

However, there are many reasons this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are six visuals to show the dramatic differences.

1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.

During the housing bubble, it was difficult not to get a mortgage. Today, it’s tough to qualify. Recently, the Urban Institute released their latest Housing Credit Availability Index (HCAI) which “measures the percentage of owner-occupied home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

The index shows that lenders were comfortable taking on high levels of risk during the housing boom of 2004-2006. It also reveals that today, the HCAI is under 5 percent, which is the lowest it’s been since the introduction of the index. The report explains:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | Simplifying The MarketThis is nothing like the last time.

2. Prices aren’t soaring out of control.

Below is a graph showing annual home price appreciation over the past four years compared to the four years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation was quite strong last year, it’s nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | Simplifying The MarketThere’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.8%. So, while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating out of control as it did in the early 2000s.

This is nothing like the last time.

3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.

The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory, which is causing an acceleration in home values.6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | Simplifying The MarketThis is nothing like the last time.

4. New construction isn’t making up the difference in inventory needed.

Some may think new construction is filling the void. However, if we compare today to right before the housing crash, we can see that an overabundance of newly built homes was a major challenge then, but isn’t now.6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | Simplifying The MarketThis is nothing like the last time.

5. Houses aren’t becoming too expensive to buy.

The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fifteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased, and the mortgage rate is about 3%. That means the average homeowner pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a chart showing that difference:6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | Simplifying The MarketAs Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, explains:

“Lower mortgage interest rates and rising incomes correspond with higher house prices as home buyers can afford to borrow and buy more. If housing is appropriately valued, house-buying power should equal or outpace the median sale price of a home. Looking back at the bubble years, house prices exceeded house-buying power in 2006, but today house-buying power is nearly twice as high as the median sale price nationally.”

This is nothing like the last time.

6. People are equity rich, not tapped out.

In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as personal ATM machines. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over 50% of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity – and owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here’s a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out almost $500 billion dollars less than before:6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | Simplifying The MarketDuring the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owed was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a wave of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. With the average home equity now standing at over $190,000, this won’t happen today.

This is nothing like the last time.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned that we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.

Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters

Contents of this article...

    • 1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.
    • 2. Prices aren’t soaring out of control.
    • 3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.
    • 4. New construction isn’t making up the difference in inventory needed.
    • 5. Houses aren’t becoming too expensive to buy.
    • 6. People are equity rich, not tapped out.
  • Bottom Line

Posted in: Real Estate Info Tagged: real estate, Real Estate Market, real estate news

Post navigation

« How Upset Should You Be about 3% Mortgage Rates?
Will the Housing Market Bloom This Spring? »
Kaye Swain REALTOR in Roseville CA real estate news and services including aging in place-multigenerational boomers and seniors old and vintage houses and first time home buyers

Hi and Welcome to KayeSwain.com.

Are you looking for homes for sale in Roseville CA and the surrounding area? I appreciate your stopping by and invite you to check out the various options available - from blog posts to inform you about this lovely Greater Sacramento Valley Area, to home searches you can set up - such as homes for sale Roseville, Lincoln, Rocklin, Granite Bay, Citrus Heights, Carmichael, Fair Oaks, etc, to fun real estate eye candy and more. And yes! This is true for residential neighborhoods, condo communities, and all of our lovely 55+ active senior retirement communities. If you have any questions about buying OR selling your home in Roseville or the surrounding Sacramento area, do give me a buzz at 916-768-0127 or email us at KayeSwainRE@gmail.com We're here to help you and your family with your real estate needs.

Kaye Swain Sun City Roseville Real Estate Agent

Search for Homes for Sale

Search KayeSwain.com

Search for:

Click here and sign up to get my free weekly emails where I share Roseville and Sacramento area updates, fun events, holiday happenings, real estate market info, and more. KayeSwain.com/free-weekly-area-updates

Search New Construction Home Listings

See What’s New Today

Oops! Please enter a valid location (city, zip code or school district) or community name.

Powered by  www.showingnew.com/kayeswain

Tags

55+ senior retirement homes 95747 aging-in-place aging in place for boomers and seniors aging in place options boomers and seniors Brand New Homes buy or sell a home Citrus Heights Corona Virus Del Webb The Club At Westpark golf course home sellers homes for sale homes for sale in Citrus Heights homes for sale in Lincoln homes for sale in Rocklin homes for sale Rocklin CA homes for sale Roseville CA Homes sold multigenerational open house Placer County real estate Real Estate Market Real Estate Market Update real estate news real estate update restaurants Retirement Rocklin Roseville Roseville CA Sacramento Sacramento County seasons Silverado Homes at Eskaton Village Sun City Lincoln Hills Sun City Roseville Sun City Roseville Homes for Sale virtual home tour weather weekly market stats West Roseville winter

Search KayeSwain.com

Search for:

CLICK HERE for free weekly emails where I share Roseville and Sacramento area updates, fun events, holiday happenings, real estate market info, and more. KayeSwain.com/free-weekly-area-updates

CLICK HERE to read our blog
CLICK HERE to read RosevilleCaliforniaJoys.com

Resources for Buyers

The Ultimate Home Buyer's Guide

Resources for Home Sellers

Click here for Kaye Swain’s ebook -> Your Home Sellers Guide 

 

 

Resources for Boomers and Seniors

  • Seniors First Resource Guide
  • John Palley,Attorney – Certified Specialist in Estate Planning, Trust and Probate Law – offers an excellent and free book you can download as a pdf – “How to Live & Die With California Probate.” (Scroll to the bottom of his page and click the photo of the book)

 

RSS Roseville California Joys Blog – Latest Posts

  • Good Info and Interesting Things To Do In Roseville CA Area
  • Fun and Interesting Local News In Roseville CA Area

CONTACT US

9167680127
KayeSwainRE@gmail.com
Christian Kaye Swain real estate agent blogger in Sacramento Roseville CA first time home buyers boomers seniors 700 700 with kw logo
© 2023 · Equity Framework
Kaye Swain Roseville Real Estate Agent, 916-768-0127, KayeSwainRE@gmail.com, CalBRE#01966207, with Keller Williams Realty, 548 Gibson Drive, Suite 200, Roseville CA 95678, (Each office is independently owned and operated)

If you have a brokerage relationship with another agency, this is not intended as a solicitation. Equal Opportunity Housing Provider.

Use of this site means you agree to the Metrolist Terms of Use. The content relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the IDX program of the MetroList MLS Services. Listing content is copyright © 2017 MetroList MLS Services. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The information provided is for consumers. personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties for purchasing. Please contact Kaye Swain Real Estate directly for additional information pertaining to the status and availability of properties displayed on this website.

We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.

*****************************************************************************

This blog may also contain other affiliate posts, ads, and links and we may receive compensation for posting those as well as for links that are clicked

Log in