• Menu
  • About
  • REVIEWS

KAYE SWAINKAYE SWAIN

Kaye Swain Roseville REALTOR - Specializing in Over 55 Communities in Roseville CA Area

9167680127
KayeSwainRE@gmail.com
  • Menu
  • HOME
  • Blog
  • Roseville CA
  • Retirement
  • real estate update
  • Brand New Homes
  • Homes For Sale
  • Home Value
  • Sell home
  • virtual home tour
  • Homes sold

3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble

Thank you for sharing....

3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

With home prices continuing to deliver double-digit increases, some are concerned we’re in a housing bubble like the one in 2006. However, a closer look at the market data indicates this is nothing like 2006 for three major reasons.

1. The housing market isn’t driven by risky mortgage loans.

Back in 2006, nearly everyone could qualify for a loan. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association is an indicator of the availability of mortgage money. The higher the index, the easier it is to obtain a mortgage. The MCAI more than doubled from 2004 (378) to 2006 (869). Today, the index stands at 130. As an example of the difference between today and 2006, let’s look at the volume of mortgages that originated when a buyer had less than a 620 credit score.3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The MarketDr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, reiterates this point:

“There are marked differences in today’s run up in prices compared to 2005, which was a bubble fueled by risky loans and lenient underwriting. Today, loans with high-risk features are absent and mortgage underwriting is prudent.”

2. Homeowners aren’t using their homes as ATMs this time.

During the housing bubble, as prices skyrocketed, people were refinancing their homes and pulling out large sums of cash. As prices began to fall, that caused many to spiral into a negative equity situation (where their mortgage was higher than the value of the house).

Today, homeowners are letting their equity build. Tappable equity is the amount available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% combined loan-to-value ratio (thus still leaving them with at least 20% equity). In 2006, that number was $4.6 billion. Today, that number stands at over $8 billion.

Yet, the percentage of cash-out refinances (where the homeowner takes out at least 5% more than their original mortgage amount) is half of what it was in 2006.3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

3. This time, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand.

FOMO (the Fear Of Missing Out) dominated the housing market leading up to the 2006 housing bubble and drove up buyer demand. Back then, housing supply more than kept up as many homeowners put their houses on the market, as evidenced by the over seven months’ supply of existing housing inventory available for sale in 2006. Today, that number is barely two months.

Builders also overbuilt during the bubble but pulled back significantly over the next decade. Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist, Economic & Housing Research at Freddie Mac, explains that pullback is the major factor in the lack of available inventory today:

“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”

Here’s a chart that quantifies Khater’s remarks:3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The MarketToday, there are simply not enough homes to keep up with current demand.

Bottom Line

This market is nothing like the run-up to 2006. Bill McBride, the author of the prestigious Calculated Risk blog, predicted the last housing bubble and crash. This is what he has to say about today’s housing market:

“It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future. In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while because inventory is so low.”

Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters

Contents of this article...

    • 1. The housing market isn’t driven by risky mortgage loans.
    • 2. Homeowners aren’t using their homes as ATMs this time.
    • 3. This time, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand.
  • Bottom Line

Posted in: Real Estate Info Tagged: real estate, Real Estate Market, real estate news

Post navigation

« What You Should Do Before Interest Rates Rise
Remote Work Has Changed Our Home Needs. Is It Time for Your Home To Change, Too? »
Kaye Swain REALTOR in Roseville CA real estate news and services including aging in place-multigenerational boomers and seniors old and vintage houses and first time home buyers

Hi and Welcome to KayeSwain.com.

Are you looking for homes for sale in Roseville CA and the surrounding area? I appreciate your stopping by and invite you to check out the various options available - from blog posts to inform you about this lovely Greater Sacramento Valley Area, to home searches you can set up - such as homes for sale Roseville, Lincoln, Rocklin, Granite Bay, Citrus Heights, Carmichael, Fair Oaks, etc, to fun real estate eye candy and more. And yes! This is true for residential neighborhoods, condo communities, and all of our lovely 55+ active senior retirement communities. If you have any questions about buying OR selling your home in Roseville or the surrounding Sacramento area, do give me a buzz at 916-768-0127 or email us at KayeSwainRE@gmail.com We're here to help you and your family with your real estate needs.

Kaye Swain Sun City Roseville Real Estate Agent

Search for Homes for Sale

Search KayeSwain.com

Search for:

Click here and sign up to get my free weekly emails where I share Roseville and Sacramento area updates, fun events, holiday happenings, real estate market info, and more. KayeSwain.com/free-weekly-area-updates

Search New Construction Home Listings

See What’s New Today

Oops! Please enter a valid location (city, zip code or school district) or community name.

Powered by  www.showingnew.com/kayeswain

Tags

55+ senior retirement homes 95747 aging-in-place aging in place for boomers and seniors aging in place options boomers and seniors Brand New Homes buy or sell a home Citrus Heights Corona Virus Del Webb The Club At Westpark golf course home sellers homes for sale homes for sale in Citrus Heights homes for sale in Lincoln homes for sale in Rocklin homes for sale Rocklin CA homes for sale Roseville CA Homes sold multigenerational open house Placer County real estate Real Estate Market Real Estate Market Update real estate news real estate update restaurants Retirement Rocklin Roseville Roseville CA Sacramento Sacramento County seasons Silverado Homes at Eskaton Village Sun City Lincoln Hills Sun City Roseville Sun City Roseville Homes for Sale virtual home tour weather weekly market stats West Roseville winter

Search KayeSwain.com

Search for:

CLICK HERE for free weekly emails where I share Roseville and Sacramento area updates, fun events, holiday happenings, real estate market info, and more. KayeSwain.com/free-weekly-area-updates

CLICK HERE to read our blog
CLICK HERE to read RosevilleCaliforniaJoys.com

Resources for Buyers

The Ultimate Home Buyer's Guide

Resources for Home Sellers

Click here for Kaye Swain’s ebook -> Your Home Sellers Guide 

 

 

Resources for Boomers and Seniors

  • Seniors First Resource Guide
  • John Palley,Attorney – Certified Specialist in Estate Planning, Trust and Probate Law – offers an excellent and free book you can download as a pdf – “How to Live & Die With California Probate.” (Scroll to the bottom of his page and click the photo of the book)

 

RSS Roseville California Joys Blog – Latest Posts

  • Good Info and Interesting Things To Do In Roseville CA Area
  • Fun and Interesting Local News In Roseville CA Area

CONTACT US

9167680127
KayeSwainRE@gmail.com
Christian Kaye Swain real estate agent blogger in Sacramento Roseville CA first time home buyers boomers seniors 700 700 with kw logo
© 2023 · Equity Framework
Kaye Swain Roseville Real Estate Agent, 916-768-0127, KayeSwainRE@gmail.com, CalBRE#01966207, with Keller Williams Realty, 548 Gibson Drive, Suite 200, Roseville CA 95678, (Each office is independently owned and operated)

If you have a brokerage relationship with another agency, this is not intended as a solicitation. Equal Opportunity Housing Provider.

Use of this site means you agree to the Metrolist Terms of Use. The content relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the IDX program of the MetroList MLS Services. Listing content is copyright © 2017 MetroList MLS Services. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The information provided is for consumers. personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties for purchasing. Please contact Kaye Swain Real Estate directly for additional information pertaining to the status and availability of properties displayed on this website.

We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.

*****************************************************************************

This blog may also contain other affiliate posts, ads, and links and we may receive compensation for posting those as well as for links that are clicked

Log in